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Jack up reliability analysis: An overview

Ahmad IDRIS, Indra Sati Hamonangan HARAHAP, Montasir Osman Ahmed ALI

《结构与土木工程前沿（英文）》 2018年 第12卷 第4期   页码 504-514 doi: 10.1007/s11709-017-0443-5

摘要： Jack up is a mobile unit used for oil and gas exploration and production in offshore fields. On demand, the unit is moved and installed in a given location and used for a period up to 12 months before being un-installed and moved to another location. Due to its mobility and re-usability, when the unit is offered for use in a given offshore location, its suitability in terms of safe operation is evaluated in accordance with the guidelines of Site Specific Assessment (SSA) of jack up. When the unit failed safety assessment criteria, the guideline recommended that it is re-assessed by increasing the complexity of the assumptions and methods used. Reliability analysis theories are one of the frameworks recommended for the safety assessment of the units. With recent developments in uncertainty and reliability analysis of structures subject to stochastic excitation, this study aims at providing a review on the past developments in jack up reliability analysis and to identify possible future directions. The results from literature reviewed shows that failure probabilities vary significantly with analysis method used. In addition, from the variants of reliability analysis approach, the method of time dependent reliability for dynamic structures subject to stochastic excitation have not been implemented on jack ups. Consequently, suggestions were made on the areas that need further examination for improvement of the efficiency in safety assessment of the units using reliability theories.

关键词： jack up     reliability analysis     uncertainty analysis     review of jack up    

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Principle of maximum entropy for reliability analysis in the design of machine components

Yimin ZHANG

《机械工程前沿（英文）》 2019年 第14卷 第1期   页码 21-32 doi: 10.1007/s11465-018-0512-z

摘要： We studied the reliability of machine components with parameters that follow an arbitrary statistical distribution using the principle of maximum entropy (PME). We used PME to select the statistical distribution that best fits the available information. We also established a probability density function (PDF) and a failure probability model for the parameters of mechanical components using the concept of entropy and the PME. We obtained the first four moments of the state function for reliability analysis and design. Furthermore, we attained an estimate of the PDF with the fewest human bias factors using the PME. This function was used to calculate the reliability of the machine components, including a connecting rod, a vehicle half-shaft, a front axle, a rear axle housing, and a leaf spring, which have parameters that typically follow a non-normal distribution. Simulations were conducted for comparison. This study provides a design methodology for the reliability of mechanical components for practical engineering projects.

关键词： machine components     reliability     arbitrary distribution parameter     principle of maximum entropy    

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Nonlinear analysis and reliability of metallic truss structures

Karim BENYAHI, Youcef BOUAFIA, Salma BARBOURA, Mohand Said KACHI

《结构与土木工程前沿（英文）》 2018年 第12卷 第4期   页码 577-593 doi: 10.1007/s11709-017-0458-y

摘要： The present study goes into the search for the safety domain of civil engineering structures. The objective is to show how a reliability-evaluation brought by a mechanical sizing can be obtained. For that purpose, it is necessary to have a mechanical model and a reliability model representing correctly the behavior of this type of structure. It is a question on one hand, to propose a formulation for the nonlinear calculation (mechanical nonlinearity) of the spatial structures in trusses, and on the other hand, to propose or to adapt a formulation and a modeling of the reliability. The principle of Hasofer-Lind can be applied, in first approach, for the reliability index estimation, scenarios and the probability of failure. The made check concerned metallic in truss structures. Finally, some structures are calculated using the method adapted by Hasofer-Lind to validate the probability approach of the reliability analysis.

关键词： modeling     nonlinearity mechanical     truss     probability     reliability     response surface     probability of failure    

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Correlation between carbon emissions and energy structure –Reliability analysis of low carbon target

Ben HUA

《能源前沿（英文）》 2011年 第5卷 第2期   页码 214-220 doi: 10.1007/s11708-010-0133-7

摘要： The influence of energy intensity on carbon intensity depends upon the fraction of energy mixes with high carbon emissions in the total energy mixes . The correlation of with a variety of primary energy mix fractions and technology advances such as CCS and CCHP is analyzed and deduced. Taking the long-term carbon reduction target in 2050 settled upon by the Copenhagen Agreement and the mid-term target suggested by the “450 Scenes Program” of the International Energy Agency (IEA) as constraints, the new pattern of the energy transition of the world in 2020, 2030, and 2050 are estimated and figured out. The peak value of energy consumption will lag behind the peak value of carbon emissions; the world energy structure shifting point will be in 2020–2025. Estimates show that China’s mid-2020 and long-term targets of energy-saving and emission reduction announced by the Chinese government might be achieved.

关键词： correlation     carbon emissions     energy consumption     high carbon emissions energy mix     target of emission reduction     reliability    

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Implementation of an optimum algorithm for structural reliability analysis based on FEM

CHENG Ying, TU Hong-mao, FAN Hong-li

《机械工程前沿（英文）》 2006年 第1卷 第4期   页码 468-471 doi: 10.1007/s11465-006-0061-8

摘要： To analyze structural reliability by the stochastic FE (finite element) method rapidly and efficiently, a method combined with the FE method and gradient optimum algorithm based on ANSYS was presented when referring to the geometric interpretation of structural reliability index. ANSYS-based development was adopted to implement it. Results of an example demonstrate that the method requires fewer FE calculations compared with the design point method and Monte-Carlo simulation, and achieves satisfactory accuracy.

关键词： satisfactory     interpretation     algorithm     structural reliability     stochastic FE    

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Reliability analysis of urban gas transmission and distribution system based on FMEA and correlation

Su LI,Weiguo ZHOU

《能源前沿（英文）》 2014年 第8卷 第4期   页码 443-448 doi: 10.1007/s11708-014-0336-4

摘要： In order to improve the safety management of urban gas transmission and distribution system, failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) was used to construct the reliability analysis system of the pipeline network. To solve the problem of subjectivity and uncertainty of the multi-expert decision making, the correlation operator was introduced into the calculation of the risk priority number (RPN). Using FMEA along with weight analysis and expert investigation approach, the FMEA evaluation table was given, including five failure modes, risk priority numbers, failure causes and effects, as well as corrective actions. The results show that correlation operator can directly process the linguistic terms and quantify the priority of the risks.

关键词： gas transmission and distribution system     risk evaluation     reliability analysis     failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA)     correlation operator    

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Reliability mesh convergence analysis by introducing expanded control variates

Alireza GHAVIDEL, Mohsen RASHKI, Hamed GHOHANI ARAB, Mehdi AZHDARY MOGHADDAM

《结构与土木工程前沿（英文）》 2020年 第14卷 第4期   页码 1012-1023 doi: 10.1007/s11709-020-0631-6

摘要： The safety evaluation of engineering systems whose performance evaluation requires finite element analysis is a challenge in reliability theory. Recently, Adjusted Control Variates Technique (ACVAT) has proposed by the authors to solve this issue. ACVAT uses the results of a finite element method (FEM) model with coarse mesh density as the control variates of the model with fine mesh and efficiently solves FEM-based reliability problems. ACVAT however does not provide any results about the reliability-based mesh convergence of the problem, which is an important tool in FEM. Mesh-refinement analysis allows checking whether the numerical solution is sufficiently accurate, even though the exact solution is unknown. In this study, by introducing expanded control variates (ECV) formulation, ACVAT is improved and the capabilities of the method are also extended for efficient reliability mesh convergence analysis of FEM-based reliability problems. In the present study, the FEM-based reliability analyses of four practical engineering problems are investigated by this method and the corresponding results are compared with accurate results obtained by analytical solutions for two problems. The results confirm that the proposed approach not only handles the mesh refinement progress with the required accuracy, but it also reduces considerably the computational cost of FEM-based reliability problems.

关键词： finite element     reliability mesh convergence analysis     expanded control variates    

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Reliability-based robust design optimization of vehicle components, Part I: Theory

Yimin ZHANG

《机械工程前沿（英文）》 2015年 第10卷 第2期   页码 138-144 doi: 10.1007/s11465-015-0333-2

摘要：

The reliability-based design optimization, the reliability sensitivity analysis and robust design method are employed to present a practical and effective approach for reliability-based robust design optimization of vehicle components. A procedure for reliability-based robust design optimization of vehicle components is proposed. Application of the method is illustrated by reliability-based robust design optimization of axle and spring. Numerical results have shown that the proposed method can be trusted to perform reliability-based robust design optimization of vehicle components.

关键词： vehicle components     reliability-based design optimization     reliability-based sensitivity analysis     multi-objective optimization     robust design    

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Reliability-based robust design optimization of vehicle components, Part II: Case studies

Yimin ZHANG

《机械工程前沿（英文）》 2015年 第10卷 第2期   页码 145-153 doi: 10.1007/s11465-015-0334-1

摘要：

The reliability-based optimization, the reliability-based sensitivity analysis and robust design method are employed to propose an effective approach for reliability-based robust design optimization of vehicle components in Part I. Applications of the method are further discussed for reliability-based robust optimization of vehicle components in this paper. Examples of axles,torsion bar, coil and composite springs are illustrated for numerical investigations. Results have shown the proposed method is an efficient method for reliability-based robust design optimization of vehicle components.

关键词： vehicle axles and springs     reliability-based design optimization     reliability-based sensitivity analysis     multi-objective optimization     robust design    

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Probabilistic analysis of secant piles with random geometric imperfections

《结构与土木工程前沿（英文）》 2021年 第15卷 第3期   页码 682-695 doi: 10.1007/s11709-021-0703-2

摘要： The failure to achieve minimum design overlap between secant piles compromises the ability of a structure to perform as designed, resulting in water leakage or even ground collapse. To establish a more realistic simulation and provide guidelines for designing a safe and cost-effective secant-pile wall, a three-dimensional model of a secant pile, considering the geometric imperfections of the diameter and direction of the borehole, is introduced. An ultrasonic cross-hole test was performed during the construction of secant piles in a launching shaft in Beijing, China. Based on the test results, the statistical characteristics of the pile diameters and orientation parameters were obtained. By taking the pile diameter D, inclination angle β, and azimuth angle α as random variables, Monte Carlo simulations were performed to discuss the influence of different design parameters on the probability density functions of the overlap of secant piles. The obtained results show that the randomness of the inclination angle and pile diameter can be well described by a normal distribution, whereas the azimuth angle is more consistent with a uniform distribution. The integrity of the secant-pile wall can be overestimated without considering the uncertainty of geometric imperfections. The failure of the secant-pile wall increases substantially with increasing spatial variability in drilling inclination and diameter. A design flowchart for pile spacing under the target safety level is proposed to help engineers design a safe and economical pile wall.

关键词： secant piles     ultrasonic cross-hole testing     probabilistic analysis     reliability-based design     random imperfections    

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腐蚀油气管线的可靠性分析

徐伟,刘茂

《中国工程科学》 2010年 第12卷 第9期   页码 69-72

摘要：

ASME B31G是国际通用的评价腐蚀管线失效应力的标准，考虑到这种方法的保守性，以修正后的B31G模型作为研究腐蚀管线失效应力的基础，考虑管壁厚度、腐蚀速率、工作压力、缺陷深度等随机变量，构建腐蚀油气管线可靠性极限状态函数。然后，采用一次二阶矩法对腐蚀管线进行可靠性分析，得出管线的失效概率、可靠性指标以及剩余使用寿命。此外，为了更加规范的管理腐蚀管线，参照美国石油组织的相关规定，对不同失效概率的管线进行了等级划分。在最后的案例分析中，还讨论失效概率对不同变异系数对的敏感性，计算结果表明失效概率对管壁厚度

关键词： 管线腐蚀     可靠性分析     一次二阶矩     失效概率    

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Reliability and variance-based sensitivity analysis of arch dams during construction and reservoir impoundment

M. Houshmand KHANEGHAHI, M. ALEMBAGHERI, N. SOLTANI

《结构与土木工程前沿（英文）》 2019年 第13卷 第3期   页码 526-541 doi: 10.1007/s11709-018-0495-1

摘要： The static performance of arch dams during construction and reservoir impoundment is assessed taking into account the effects of uncertainties presented in the model properties as well as the loading conditions. Dez arch dam is chosen as the case study; it is modeled along with its rock foundation using the finite element method considering the stage construction. Since previous studies concentrated on simplified models and approaches, comprehensive study of the arch dam model along with efficient and state-of-the-art uncertainty methods are incorporated in this investigation. The reliability method is performed to assess the safety level and the sensitivity analyses for identifying critical input factors and their interaction effects on the response of the dam. Global sensitivity analysis based on improved Latin hypercube sampling is employed in this study to indicate the influence of each random variable and their interaction on variance of the responses. Four levels of model advancement are considered for the dam-foundation system: 1) Monolithic dam without any joint founded on the homogeneous rock foundation, 2) monolithic dam founded on the inhomogeneous foundation including soft rock layers, 3) jointed dam including the peripheral and contraction joints founded on the homogeneous foundation, and 4) jointed dam founded on the inhomogeneous foundation. For each model, proper performance indices are defined through limit-state functions. In this manner, the effects of input parameters in each performance level of the dam are investigated. The outcome of this study is defining the importance of input factors in each stage and model based on the variance of the dam response. Moreover, the results of sampling are computed in order to assess the safety level of the dam in miscellaneous loading and modeling conditions.

关键词： concrete arch dams     reliability     randomness     improved Latin hypercube sampling     variance-based sensitivity analysis     exceedance probability     Sobol′ index    

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New concept and procedure for reliability assessment of an IEC 61850 based substation and distribution

Hosein HAYATI,Amir AHADI,Seyed Mohsen MIRYOUSEFI AVAL

《能源前沿（英文）》 2015年 第9卷 第4期   页码 387-398 doi: 10.1007/s11708-015-0382-6

摘要： Smart grid is a power grid consists of extensive monitoring systems which deal with the monitoring of attributes such as current, voltage, power, and energy at distribution transformers, substations transformers, distribution switching devices and smart meters. Smart grid with advanced communication technologies can be used for several purposes such as efficiency and reliability improvement. IEC 61850 is the core standard in the smart grid domain for distribution and substation automation. This paper introduces a vision of modern substation and distribution systems using the IEC 61850. Network operators mainly assume that the modern substation and distribution systems based on the IEC 61850 are reliable for a long-time of operation. However, similar to any other systems, the implemented IEC 61850 might fail because of the operational failures or aging failures. This paper proposes a novel method for reliability evaluation of modern substation and distribution systems. A typical IEC 61850 based distribution and substation system is developed and analyzed using the proposed method. The fault tree analysis (FTA) is used to quantify the reliability of the system. The technique is implemented and demonstrated on the Roy Billinton test system (RBTS). The analysis is further extended on a 400/63 kV substation with a breaker- and-a-half configuration. In addition, the technique proves to be robust under different operations. The results verify the feasibility and applicability of the proposed method.

关键词： IEC 61850     reliability assessment     fault tree analysis    

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Reliability analysis on civil engineering project based on integrated adaptive simulation annealing and

Xiao-ping BAI,Ya-nan LIU

《结构与土木工程前沿（英文）》 2016年 第10卷 第4期   页码 462-471 doi: 10.1007/s11709-016-0361-y

摘要： Dynamic reliability is a very important issue in reliability research. The dynamic reliability analysis for the project is still in search of domestic and international research in the exploration stage. By now, dynamic reliability research mainly concentrates on the reliability assessment; the methods mainly include dynamic fault tree, extension of event sequence diagram and Monte Carlo simulation, and et al. The paper aims to research the dynamic reliability optimization. On the basis of analysis of the four quality influence factors in the construction engineering, a method based on gray correlation degree is employed to calculate the weights of factors affecting construction process quality. Then the weights are added into the reliability improvement feasible index (RIFI). Furthermore, a novel nonlinear programming mathematic optimization model is established. In the Insight software environment, the Adaptive Simulated Annealing (ASA) algorithm is used to get a more accurate construction subsystem optimal reliability under different RIFI conditions. In addition, the relationship between construction quality and construction system reliability is analyzed, the proposed methods and detailed processing can offer a useful reference for improving the construction system quality level.

关键词： civil engineering     dynamic reliability     grey relational degree     adaptive simulated annealing algorithm    

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Novel decoupled framework for reliability-based design optimization of structures using a robust shifting

Mohammad Reza GHASEMI, Charles V. CAMP, Babak DIZANGIAN

《结构与土木工程前沿（英文）》 2019年 第13卷 第4期   页码 800-820 doi: 10.1007/s11709-019-0517-7

摘要： In a reliability-based design optimization (RBDO), computation of the failure probability ( ) at all design points through the process may suitably be avoided at the early stages. Thus, to reduce extensive computations of RBDO, one could decouple the optimization and reliability analysis. The present work proposes a new methodology for such a decoupled approach that separates optimization and reliability analysis into two procedures which significantly improve the computational efficiency of the RBDO. This technique is based on the probabilistic sensitivity approach (PSA) on the shifted probability density function. Stochastic variables are separated into two groups of desired and non-desired variables. The three-phase procedure may be summarized as: Phase 1, apply deterministic design optimization based on mean values of random variables; Phase 2, move designs toward a reliable space using PSA and finding a primary reliable optimum point; Phase 3, applying an intelligent self-adaptive procedure based on cubic B-spline interpolation functions until the targeted failure probability is reached. An improved response surface method is used for computation of failure probability. The proposed RBDO approach could significantly reduce the number of analyses required to less than 10% of conventional methods. The computational efficacy of this approach is demonstrated by solving four benchmark truss design problems published in the structural optimization literature.

关键词： reliability-based design optimization     trusses     sensitivity analysis     shifting technique     cubic B-splines     response surface method    

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标题 作者 时间 类型 操作

Jack up reliability analysis: An overview

Ahmad IDRIS, Indra Sati Hamonangan HARAHAP, Montasir Osman Ahmed ALI

期刊论文

Principle of maximum entropy for reliability analysis in the design of machine components

Yimin ZHANG

期刊论文

Nonlinear analysis and reliability of metallic truss structures

Karim BENYAHI, Youcef BOUAFIA, Salma BARBOURA, Mohand Said KACHI

期刊论文

Correlation between carbon emissions and energy structure –Reliability analysis of low carbon target

Ben HUA

期刊论文

Implementation of an optimum algorithm for structural reliability analysis based on FEM

CHENG Ying, TU Hong-mao, FAN Hong-li

期刊论文

Reliability analysis of urban gas transmission and distribution system based on FMEA and correlation

Su LI,Weiguo ZHOU

期刊论文

Reliability mesh convergence analysis by introducing expanded control variates

Alireza GHAVIDEL, Mohsen RASHKI, Hamed GHOHANI ARAB, Mehdi AZHDARY MOGHADDAM

期刊论文

Reliability-based robust design optimization of vehicle components, Part I: Theory

Yimin ZHANG

期刊论文

Reliability-based robust design optimization of vehicle components, Part II: Case studies

Yimin ZHANG

期刊论文

Probabilistic analysis of secant piles with random geometric imperfections

期刊论文

腐蚀油气管线的可靠性分析

徐伟,刘茂

期刊论文

Reliability and variance-based sensitivity analysis of arch dams during construction and reservoir impoundment

M. Houshmand KHANEGHAHI, M. ALEMBAGHERI, N. SOLTANI

期刊论文

New concept and procedure for reliability assessment of an IEC 61850 based substation and distribution

Hosein HAYATI,Amir AHADI,Seyed Mohsen MIRYOUSEFI AVAL

期刊论文

Reliability analysis on civil engineering project based on integrated adaptive simulation annealing and

Xiao-ping BAI,Ya-nan LIU

期刊论文

Novel decoupled framework for reliability-based design optimization of structures using a robust shifting

Mohammad Reza GHASEMI, Charles V. CAMP, Babak DIZANGIAN

期刊论文